With CO2 doubling, predicted is a 1.9°C rise in GMST: Study

Yay!! Yay? For once I feel like a climate study is not predicting the absolute worse [sic] possible scenario, it’s just predicting a serious and pressing one. Roy Spencer and Ron Christy published a paper entitled Effective climate sensitivity distributions from a 1D model of global ocean and land temperature trends, 1970–2021. Phys.org has a version in English.

In an effort to better understand the effect of CO2 on the atmosphere they looked [at] historical data of the past 50 years to model the relationship between CO2 and expected rise in temperature. Previous studies estimated a doubling of carbon in the atmosphere to be between 1.8°[C] and 5.6°[C] while the Spencer and Christy study shows a 1.9°[C] rise [in global mean surface temperature or GMST].

This study has some important advantages. It uses historical data, including deep ocean and deep land storage of heat. It also conservers [sic] energy in the thermodynamic sense of the term.

While cause for some hope that the earth will be more resilient than some expect, the levels of temperature rise expected are still serious and earth[-]changing. I would read this paper as “we still have A chance IF we act now” and not as “an everything will be all right,” [situation] since from this last summer we know it won’t be. I would also caution that it’s usually not best to put all weight into a single paper, nor is it clear to me how well they have modeled future tipping points, if at all.

Source: “Quick Climate: Study predicts 1.9° rise in temp from CO2 doubling. Good, but we still need to act,” by Peter Olandt. Republished with permission of The Daily Kos.

Update: Sept. 29, 2023 at 3:27 p.m. PDT.

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