Progress Report: California on track to reach 2020 GHG target of 427 MMTCO2e

Another year has passed and California’s greenhouse gas emissions continue to fall. For purposes of this discussion, representative data covers years 2000 to 2015, inclusive.

“California’s GHG emissions have followed a declining trend since 2007,” the California Environmental Protection Agency Air Resources Board (ARB) emphasized in the Overview section of “California Greenhouse Gas Emissions for 2000 to 2015 – Trends of Emissions and Other Indicators,” an adjunct or supplement to its “2017 Edition California GHG Emission Inventory” document. “In 2015, emissions from routine emitting activities statewide were 1.5 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalent (MMTCO₂e) lower than 2014 levels, representing an overall decrease of 10% since peak levels in 2004. During the 2000 to 2015 period, per capita GHG emissions in California have continued to drop from a peak in 2001 of 14.0 tonnes per person to 11.3 tonnes per person in 2015, a 19% decrease. Overall trends in the inventory also demonstrate that the carbon intensity of California’s economy (the amount of carbon pollution per million dollars of gross domestic product (GDP)) is declining, representing a 33% decline since the 2001 peak, while the state’s GDP has grown 37% during this period.”

It’s all looking pretty promising.

2020 is only two years away. The state needs to lower GHGs to 427 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by that time. In 2015, the state was at a level of 440.4 MMTCO₂e. That means an additional 3.04 percent or about a 3 percent reduction.

However, there is one area that is troubling – transportation. Between 2013 and 2015, it appears that passenger vehicles are having the greatest influence on the rising transportation-sector-based emissions.

As reported by ARB, this time in the “New Report Shows California is Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions as Economy Continues to Grow,” Jun. 7, 2017 news release,” the agency observed: “Increased fuel consumption in 2015 resulted in a 3 percent increase in emissions from the transportation sector, which is the state’s largest source of greenhouse gases with 37 percent of statewide emissions.”

Referring again to the “Trends of Emissions and Other Indicators” document, the ARB adds: “Emissions from transportation sources were relatively constant through 2007, declined through 2013, then increased by 4.6 MMTCO₂e (or 3%) from 2014 to 2015. On-road GHGs account for 99% of that increase. A combination of factors influences on-road transportation emissions. Regulations and improved fuel efficiency of the state’s vehicle fleet drive down emissions over time, but population growth, lower fuel prices, and improved economic conditions and higher employment rate are potential factors that may increase fuel use.

“Consistent with the IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories and the annual GHG inventories submitted by the U.S. and other nations to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the biofuel components of fuel combustion CO₂ emissions are classified as ‘biogenic CO₂’ and are tracked separately as informational items from the rest of the emissions in the inventory (that are classified as ‘included’ emissions). The continuously increasing market penetration of biodiesel and renewable diesel was able to offset the increase in on-road heavy-duty diesel use. As a result, the on-road heavy-duty diesel category showed an overall decrease in ‘included’ emissions …. However, the percent of ethanol in gasoline blend dropped slightly in 2015 and did not offset the relative larger increase in gasoline fuel consumption ….”

Furthermore and as far as trend lines go, the electric power sector saw marked improvement while the industrial, agricultural, commercial and residential and recycling and waste sectors, all effectively remained unchanged. The high global warming potential (high GWP) gases category which accounts for 4 percent of all California GHG emissions, on the other hand, has seen steady growth from as far back as 2003.

“Emissions from the electricity sector continue to decline due to growing zero-GHG energy generation sources,” ARB in the “Trends of Emissions and Other Indicators” document continued. “Emissions from the remaining sectors have remained relatively constant, although emissions from high-GWP gases have continued to climb as they replace ozone depleting substances (ODS) banned under the Montreal Protocol.”

The prospect of California reaching its 427 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions 2020 GHG target which, incidentally, is what California emissions output in year 1990 was, looks pretty good.

That said, the goal beyond 2020 is to reduce said emissions an additional 40 percent a decade later and double that by mid-century.

– Alan Kandel